Thanks for the comment and i think you raise an interesting point. No doubt, the stage is set for consolidation, and I think we’ve all played the game in terms of speculating whom might do what with whom. I think most of the action will occur before summer… just a hunch.

K

Its clear that personal communication devices aren’t going anywhere so the potential of use is infinite.

It will be interesting to see where this is all at five years from now.

Yes, we are clearly only scratching the surface. As I said in a more recent post, the magic will really come when mobile, digital signage, premises applications and analytics are all pulled together to increase engagement, relevance and targeting.

KG

Don’t you agree that there is a lot of potential for mobile phone technology to grow considerably? I believe we are far from our peak in this sense. I look forward to hearing your opinion on this.

Bob

Thanks for the comment and thoughts. I agree that mobile integration is part of the solution, but not the entire solution. The most powerful analytics will also involve site/venue systems, such as POS and CRM at a retailer. When we pull it all together, we can measure and drive behavior very effectively!
Thanks,

Ken

Analytics are the key to any business system, and the more we can integrate analytical measurements to the digital out of home space, the more sufficient it becomes.

Perhaps this is accomplished through mobile integration? Interaction with digital signage through mobile platforms would certainly increase the amount of raw data collected on the efficiency and effectiveness of the digital signage platforms.

Just a thought…

I certainly agree with your first two sentences! To a certain extent, most long timers in the space walk the fine line between optimism and masochism. I was using the term DOOH Spring metaphorically, not as a prediction for the timing of long-awaited changes. I’ll take a shot at actual predictions in my annual football post soon. It was more about seeing some structural changes, some market forces, and even the odd rumbling that leads me to believe that some sort of tipping point is finally imminent.

Today, 48 hours after the post, news of executive changes at PRN and Scala, and a possible merger between YCD and C-Nario were posted on DailyDOOH. I think it is the tip of the iceberg. When customer demand returns, which I think it will, it will be stronger than ever before. With talent on the sidelines and capital looking for winners, I think it is the perfect storm. Is Spring too soon? Maybe, maybe not. But the current structure on all sides of this business is not sustainable, so changes are going to occur.

Thanks as always for adding to the discussion!

I’m skeptical of the spring. Because we have seen such a slow go of it, there’s nothing to indicate that this pent up energy will release. Wasn’t this supposed to happen this year?

Now, to be fair, you probably know more about some deals going on than I do, and you won’t play your hand (hence NOT cashing in…), so that is a good sign if I read into it. But one man’s fortune is…well..another man’s graveyard.

Android will become a de-facto standard for embedded with the tech crowd, though one wonders how long Google can sustain Android – it seems to be costing them a sh*tload of money with only pennies in return. (Are they really going to make handsets? That’ll be a fun ride!)

Apple really doesn’t care. If they dominate the consumer space then they will have the parts of the enterprise that they want. As one VP of IT Services called it “the tyranny of consumer tech” – I don’t think he quite understands what is his job is.

If and when ATV opens up Designer/Programmer types like myself will be happy just to have a cheap standard networked box of known performance to program for. I suspect it will be pretty popular in the super-fragmented world of DS.

re: The Newton. Anything created during the Steve Jobs wilderness years doesn’t count. This is the Law.

BTW, “vehement blowback from Apple cognoscenti”… I would say that was an understatement, but very well put! It is always great to have a spirited conversation or debate, that is the hope of any blogger. I was roasted over an open fire by Apple fans of all stripes. Few were able to articulate themselves without making personal and emotional attacks. I equate many of them to sports fans who think they are part of the team (“we won last night!”…. oh, really, what position did you play?). Others are more analytical and rational like yourself, which elevates the discussion and for which I am grateful.

The marketplace has a way of making strategies morph. Any success from Android, for example, in the B2B space might drive Apple to swerve with its superior product. Never say never. What if Apple had said they’d never develop another tablet after the Newton debacle?

However, you need to realise that Apple doesn’t give a flying f**k for a market as small as DS – or indeed any embedded appliance. It’s not even on their radar. If its not going to make a $billion or vertically support a division that makes a $billion, or vertically support a new $billion product segment that is yet to be revealed, then it is of no interest.

At the very heart of the Apple DNA is focus and control. Licensing of operating systems outside of their own products will never, ever happen (again).

I suspect you will have had some vehement blowback from Apple cognoscenti simply because those who understand anything about Apple will find the idea preposterous – even in jest.

K

Android is going to play heavily in the embedded space, even more so than it already is.

Thanks for taking the time to read the post. I appreciate your insight into what I know and do not know. It is always helpful to be judged by total strangers. By the way, feel free to read this 2010 post on Apple: http://www.realdigitalmedia.com/digital-signage-blog/what-can-we-learn-from-apple/ .

I wasn’t applying for a job, I was making a suggestion that I thought would benefit my industry, my company and perhaps Apple. I thought I was having fun with a blog post, but apparently I underestimated the passion and emotional connection of Apple followers. Wow.

I had another two paragraphs written here, but I deleted them in the interest of moving on. Suffice it to say that your insults were the only hate mail fit for publication, so thanks for demonstrating some writing skills and a modicum of emotional maturity.

Thanks for the response. In cases where the customer does not have the equipment on their own premises, you are right, they just want it to work and be highly reliable. I only recall taking one prospect in to see our production server rack. They became customers by the way, but I think that visit was more diligence than tipping point. My fear is that companies improperly using “cloud” as a selling point will confuse the buyers and make the word meaningless.

If that’s the case with us (and I’d love to know if it is with you) then I find myself much more worried about ensuring the user knows what to do than the VCs.

KG

Much more to come!

Scott Maxwell
OpenView Venture Partners

TiVo has been doing this for years. I remember when they explained that the Janet Jackson/Justin Timberlake Super Bowl dance debacle was the most TiVo’d event. So the technology is already there.

I think you’re right about the networks not happy with this. It’s a bit of a bigger play, I think, because networks can influence TV manufacturers. (Best BUy did this a lot – they would tell manufacturers what people wanted and what BBY was willing to sell.) It very much feels like the old guard.

The challenge is whether this will have impact on digital signage. The difference is the captivation of the audience. If the TV is on in a home, there’s a very good chance someone is watching it. That can’t be said for people walking by a screen hanging in a store window.

The measurement of whether or not a program is playing is going to be easy. The understanding of engagement is going to be hard.

But the bottom line is that TV is evolving and it will be better for the entire media ecosystem as a whole.

Thanks for the comment. For the record, I do watch on TiVo, and watch it with the most beautiful woman in the world.

KG

Advertising always faces a shakeout in times like these and you could argue that DOOH is the most vulnerable strand.

Thank you for putting together this wonderful article. I’m somewhat new to the DS arena but its nice reading your insight on certain issues and companies in our industry. Keep up the great writing!

Thanks for the comment and the kind words. Lots of stuff to ponder here, and you are right about the S-1 process, right about NFC (I am a HUGE fan, but it is extremely early), and right about the double edged sword of mobile and DOOH. I am thrilled that the post generated some good discussion, and hope it keeps going.

Thanks

KG

No hiding here – I know the ad supported DOOH and retail media business extremely well. The anonymous comment is spot on. The revenue share for airlines can be extremely high as can be retail and arenas among many others. There is no sustainable competitive advantage there. As long as you can avoid capex and be the sales arm you’ve got something. But not necessarily something scaleable or long term.

RMG is doing the right thing to consolidate the industry. I have no axe to grind and I know that Ken doesn’t. He wrote one of best, balanced, and well thought-out analyses I’ve seen in twelve years in this area.

RMG’s issue is whether the sum of the parts is less than the parts. I think that will be the problem. And how much of the growth that doubled is organic and how much from the acquisitions. S-1′s are not fun and expose more issues (witness Groupon) in your business than positives. Legally that’s just how they work of course. That’s OK with Groupon which still has tremendous buzz to get past the financial concerns. Not so with RMG or anyone in DOOH.

That buzz of course has resulted in dollars are flying to digital and mobile at increasing rates. And traditional TV is showing respectable growth too. I worry that ad-supported DOOH gets squeezed . There will be a few venues that are favored (cinema, airline, etc) – whatever is truly captive and engaged. Rolling these up in value accretive ways is great. Those that are non captive and non engaging, and there are many, will simply die.

RMG is trying hard to push the mobile social buttons with their recent announcements. There is a lot of presumption to scrutinize in these third party relationships for several reasons. NFC is not a near term silver bullet. COunt the number of Nexus S model sold and you have the number of NFC smart devices here to access the new pads. In three years maybe some heft. Text based services have been less than stellar in this area. I’ve seen some results that cast a scary eye on DOOH effectiveness. SImply divide the number of interactions by purported viewership and you will understand the risk. No advertiser will fault the mobile technology, but they will question whether your DOOH vehicle was truly engaging and reached the numbers you asserted. Lastly the highest value goes to the highest engagement in the relationship. Who owns the social/mobile customer once they opt-in. Easy answer.

What I suspect is that Kleiner must want out by now. These VC funds are typically closed end, and this investment has been around for a long time. There has to be a financial event not simply for new acquisition.

Ken – that post rocked. My thoughts here are scattershot in comparison. Keep up the fantastic work. I don’t know how you do it in your spare time.

if RMG wants to respond to that person’s comments, or anything that is in the post, they are welcome to do so.

KG

RMG are a decent enough bunch with a very good CEO and some great backers. The industry needs some winners and it needs some IPOs.

I’d have more faith in ‘anon’ comments if they weren’t well anonymous.

I’m happy to beat up the bad guys and happy to shout at the good guys when they make mistakes but let’s do it above board, be honest who you are, what you do, what stake you have in the game etc.

Thanks for the comment and additional insights. I am not privy to their financials, which perhaps you are, but would welcome the chance to see an S-1, which would clear up many misconceptions, I am sure. If the names in my mayonnaise jar are correct, they are about to buy a revenue base, but the legacy and infrastructure challenges will still require investment. It will be fun to watch, and you can bet that every step will be accompanied by the usual breathless PR that so typifies our industry.

KG

Thanks for the kind words and link in your post!

KG

Agree with your conclusion. My own view is that the snarky, “us versus them” crowd you ran into at the show is actually a relatively small group of small-minded, self-important people. There are far more people inside DSA who actually recognize that and are doing what they can to change culture. My calculations say they are one-third of the way there. I hope they finish the job, for everyone’s sake.